The Emergence of LENR and it’s Predictable Effect on the Economy
To estimate how the emergence of LENR in the market place will predictable impact the US economy, it is best to study the known effects higher oil prices have.
US demand for oil arises from demand for the products that are made from it. When the price of petroleum products increases, consumers use more of their income to pay for oil-derived products, and their spending on other goods and services decline.
Every penny of increase in gas prices takes one billion dollars out of the U.S. economy. So when the price of gas goes up $1, that’s one hundred billion dollars sucked out of the U.S. economy, or about $1000 a year out of the typical American household.
Furthermore, oil is necessary for the production of a wide range of goods and services, because it is used for transportation in businesses of all types. Higher oil prices can cause worker layoffs and idling of plants if the cost increases can’t be passed onto the consumers, or cost increases cause consumer demand to slack.
Finally, higher oil prices cause increases in other energy prices.
Currently, LENR energy technology is little known and the market does not seriously expect it to be commercialized soon. That perception will change, (arguably) starting with the first independent confirmations of Defkalion LENR technology, continuing to grow with the first LENR generators introduced to the market, and finally reaching a fever pitch as the mass media bombards the public with analysis of future LENR applications, fueled by the sky high cost of oil.
According to Defkalion, 18 factories have been sold, and when each one is built it will produce 300,000 LENR generators per year. According to Rossi, construction of his first factory will begin in February, and will eventually produce a million LENR generators a year. Presumably the blue prints for this heavily automated plant will be cloned repeatedly thereafter. Such rapid expansion will very likely result in a public relations storm, and consequential market reaction.
There will be no immediate significant decrease in fossil fuel usage due to the commercialization of LENR, but there will predictably be a dramatic psychological impact. Investors will see the medium and long-term implications of significantly lower energy prices, and consequentially lower the assessed value of soon-to-be obsolete energy infrastructure, conventional energy companies, and long-term contracts for their relatively expensive product.
Furthermore, as the creative destruction of our current conventional energy infrastructure proceeds, more resources will be devoted to new and better ways to exploit the LENR exothermic reaction. As more and more LENR generators come on line, the trend will drive down the price of energy in the futures market.
When the price of energy decreases, consumers will use less of their income to pay for energy-derived products, and their spending on other goods and services will predictably increase.
Furthermore, since energy is necessary for the production of a wide range of goods and services, lower energy prices will predictably cause the hiring of more workers and the expansion of plants because the cost decreases won’t always be passed onto the consumers, or cost decreases will lead consumer demand to increase.
To summarize, in my opinion the best way to estimate how the emergence of LENR onto the market place will affect our economy is to look at the know effects of higher oil prices. Take for instance the current spike in oil prices: just when companies have finally stepped up hiring, rising oil prices are threatening to halt the U.S. economy’s gains. On the other hand, LENR will predictably lower energy prices, amplifying U.S. economic gains.
Cheaper products, more jobs, more money to spend – WOW! The positive feedback effects could mean geometric economic expansion. The future will be so bright, we’ll have to wear shades!